If you have ever had the unfortunate experience of a long fall, you will know that there is absolutely nothing that you can do about your situation till after you hit bottom. This is kind of how I see our current political situation. Fortunately, I live in Canada which will be one of the few places on the planet that have some cushion to land on.
The reason that I call this a Forecast, rather than a prediction, is that these trends are already well on the way.
If you are one of the masses in north America who get most of their news on TV, in magazines such as Times or News Week, or even in news papers you will, you have been receiving very censured information. There are two main types of censorship in the West. The most common type is to give several different opinions or explanations of a situation or event, and then ridicule the ones you don’t like. The second method is to tag it racist, anti, phobic, extremist left or right on a person or organization.
If you look up some major newspapers front pages from the year 1912 you will be totally amazed at how totally unaware the politicians or decision makers were of the disastrous precipice they were sitting on. Absolutely no one believed that the world would be in total war in less than two years. We are at the point of a world war, but not a war that will be fought with guns and bombs. I will certainly write more on this subject in future articles.
Now, to my political forecasts for 2012. The American political stalemate will finally end with Obama loosing the Presidential election to Newt Gingrich. Just kidding. Obama will be re-elected by about 51% majority. The American political scene will remain almost deadlocked and ineffective. America will start to move away from being the global policeman, and focus on serious problems at home.
The EU will do everything in can to postpone the inevitable. The fact that it does not work. The EU will fail. The German and French governments will do everything they can do to postpone the financial crash till 2013. It will be a close call this year, but I think the bottom will not fall out till the following year. The EU will eventually return to what it was meant to be at the beginning, a Common Market.
The big story this year have been the Arab Spring. If you have ever read history, especially the French Revolution there are too many similarities. After the Dictators and Kings have all been killed or run off, these so called countries will be left with three groups all jostling for power. The first group that started the uprisings were the young educated class who want western democracy. The second is the Muslim Brotherhood, and of course the third group is the Generals. You do not need to be a political scientist to see that the Generals and the Muslim Brotherhood will make a deal with each other and screw the democrats’. These new governments will become what I call Religious Fascism. The young democrats will be under a whole new set of repressions.
What I would like to see in the West is a new awareness of what is happening behind the scene. Our top politicians and bankers know what is going on, but will not take this on because of self interests. The first is the West continuing losing power and influence to the East. To make money you have to manufacture things to sell. Being mainly a consumer nation means a slow slide into poverty.
The second subject that the West needs to come to terms with is that the controlling powers of Islam, sees itself as at War with the West. Hopefully the Islamic countries will be engulfed in their own political turmoil for the next few years.
The hard fact for the West to come to terms with is that we cannot afford our current standard of living. The political left will oppose the political rights attempts to balance the books and pay down our debts. Te sad truth is that the conservatives caused much of the debt. The results will be a continues deadlock and little progress in most areas.
I do hope dearly that we are not at the edge as back in 1912.
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